Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.144426 1.210202 1.278500 1.354862 1.438034 1.526077 1.626582
2026-02-01 1.025723 1.116628 1.215129 1.330355 1.462167 1.609111 1.786532
2026-02-08 0.941086 1.044112 1.158939 1.297437 1.461352 1.650948 1.889486
2026-02-15 0.888116 1.000494 1.128639 1.287153 1.480199 1.710661 2.011285
2026-02-22 0.851491 0.971950 1.112063 1.289283 1.510708 1.782782 2.149833
2026-03-01 0.809728 0.934106 1.081118 1.270482 1.512157 1.816412 2.238907
2026-03-08 0.766378 0.891730 1.041849 1.238141 1.493136 1.820819 2.287277
2026-03-15 0.738081 0.866174 1.021596 1.227922 1.500829 1.859027 2.382326
2026-03-22 0.725377 0.859087 1.023622 1.245665 1.545232 1.947775 2.553357
2026-03-29 0.706397 0.843054 1.013221 1.246098 1.565673 2.003983 2.680705
2026-04-05 0.694123 0.834879 1.012279 1.258564 1.602557 2.084607 2.849740
2026-04-12 0.674531 0.816398 0.996947 1.250541 1.609902 2.122534 2.955366
2026-04-19 0.664431 0.810474 0.998619 1.266805 1.653919 2.218982 3.165436
2026-04-26 0.640293 0.785246 0.973571 1.244786 1.641386 2.229843 3.237452
2026-05-03 0.614850 0.757416 0.943943 1.214884 1.615437 2.218066 3.269666
2026-05-10 0.598408 0.741076 0.929302 1.205536 1.619324 2.252460 3.383338
2026-05-17 0.586946 0.731025 0.922832 1.207472 1.640027 2.314314 3.550504
2026-05-24 0.569671 0.712505 0.903928 1.190374 1.630407 2.326119 3.627442
2026-05-31 0.549180 0.689019 0.877358 1.160938 1.600107 2.301887 3.634754
2026-06-07 0.536328 0.675712 0.864693 1.151630 1.600907 2.329373 3.742428
2026-06-14 0.532294 0.674469 0.869002 1.167789 1.642812 2.428912 4.000227
2026-06-21 0.523541 0.666349 0.863150 1.168183 1.659058 2.484834 4.176409
2026-06-28 0.518529 0.663319 0.864481 1.179531 1.693657 2.575213 4.434060